Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
